Macro Analysis

Sunday 5 July There was renewed weakness in commodities across the board during the past week, confirming my bearish stance. Iron ore fell $6.60 to $54.10 and has now established the potential for a trading range between $46.70 (the April low) and $65.40 (the June high). One interpretation of the fall in Brent oil to $60.32

Sunday 7 June Commodities Gold (US$1,165) continues to look bearish, and base metals likewise. I remain neutral on oil and iron ore. The latter hit a new rally high of US$63.80 but that doesn’t necessarily mean anything. Coal remains in downtrend. Currencies The US dollar index is consolidating in the 93-100 range. It fell marginally during the week. Against

Sunday 31 May Futures Again, there is no change to views for futures markets. Some comments: The A$ (at 76.49 US¢) continued its pull back from the peak of 80.14 US¢ achieved earlier this month. However, it is too early to declare the rally over – a break of 75¢ would be required for that. The fall

Sunday 17 May I look at charts for my portfolio stocks and a few others each day, plus my charting system does a database search for breakouts daily, but otherwise I look at many charts, including those of certain commodities, just once a week; otherwise it would take too much of my time. So here are

Sunday 10 May Currencies The US$ index continues to fall, with strength in Sterling and the Euro. Two weeks ago I wrote that “the A$ at just over 78¢ has tentatively broken its short term downtrend line, which gives rise to the possibility of a rally. Let’s wait and see.” Well, it did stage a

Sunday 3 May I view many charts, including those of commodities, on a weekly basis only, and highlight below a few of my observations. Double click on any of the charts to enlarge them. Iron Ore price US$56.20/dmt Last week the iron ore price rallied into the high 50s as I thought it might. It