Macro Analysis

Newcastle, Saturday 27 April Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily Will the rally in equity markets continue? Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.78% up 0.07%, wkly, daily) managed to eke out a new recent high on Thursday before closing the week marginally ahead. The long term uptrend is well

Newcastle, Saturday 20 April Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily Equities in correction. Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.71% up 0.11%, wkly, daily) continued its rise. Fiat currenciesThe USD index (106.15 up 0.12 pts, wkly, daily) consolidated in a narrow to retain the gains made in previous weeks. Against

Newcastle, Saturday 13 April Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily Equity markets are likely to correct in the short term. Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.60% up 0.07%, wkly, daily) continued its rally during the week. It remains in its short term and long term uptrends, with little resistance

Newcastle, Saturday 6 April Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily It’s gold/silver/copper, and possibly oil, and potentially bitcoin if it can break through again. Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.53% up 0.18%, wkly, daily) has risen further to a new high for the year and it remains in its

Newcastle, Saturday 30 March Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily The commentary covers only four days this week as markets were closed on Good Friday. Nothing dramatic to report. Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.40% down 0.04%, mthly, wkly, daily) remains in its short term uptrend of 3 months

Newcastle, Saturday 23 March Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily BTC is pulling back and oil could do likewise. Copper still looks good and iron ore still does not. Meanwhile, has NdPr bottomed? Too early to tell, of course, but it picked up a little on Friday. Government bondsThe yield of

Newcastle, Saturday 16 March Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily Bitcoin has confirmed its breakout to new record highs. And copper may be commencing a new bull trend. Government bondsYou might have noticed I no longer talk about bond prices because I believe that bond yields i.e. the interest rate that

Newcastle, Saturday 9 March Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily Gold and bitcoin remain strong against fiat currencies and I believe that will continue in the long term.There is not much joy in mining and petroleum commodities just yet.I continue with my view that banks should be bought and resource stocks

Newcastle, Saturday 2 March Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily Iron ore is likely to fall further but gold and bitcoin look good.The All Ords has at last pushed through the January 2022 high to move into record territory.Looks like the banks will outperform. Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond

Newcastle, Saturday 24 February Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily Unfortunately I forgot to renew my subscription for the futures data package that I use, so have no access this weekend to updated charts on government bonds, fiat currencies, gold prices and some commodities. And I cannot renew my subsctiption until

Newcastle, Saturday 17 February Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily Nothing much happening, except in crypto. Government bondsThe yield for the 30-yr T-Bond (4.45% up 0.07%, wkly, daily) has made a new rally high. This implies a further rise could occur. Fiat currenciesThe USD index (104.30 up 0.19 pts, wkly, daily)

Newcastle, Saturday 10 February Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily Equitiy markets are in bull markets, and bitcoin is outperforming gold. Government bondsThe yield of the longer-dated 30-yr T-Bond (4.38% up 0.15%, wkly, daily) traded in a narrow range this week. The long term uptrend remains intact. Fiat currenciesThe USD index

Newcastle, Saturday 3 February Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily Nothing too dramatic this week. Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.23% down 0.16%, wkly, daily) fell sharply earlier in the week then rallied sharply on Friday. The long-term uptrend in the yield remains intact. Fiat currenciesThe USD index (103.92

Mittagong, Saturday 27 January Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily Shortened version today as I am travelling without much time to devote to this. Government bondsThe yield of the 30-yr T-Bond (4.39% up 0.04%, wkly, daily) continued in its short-term uptrend within its long-term uptrend. Fiat currenciesThe USD index (103.43 up

Newcastle, Saturday 20 January 2024 Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily The S&P500 has broken out to a new record high! I think we could follow. Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($120.00 down $2.88, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) pulled back sharply, resulting in

Newcastle, Sunday 14 January Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily Nothing spectacular this week. Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($122.87 up $0.84, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) stabilised this week after previously breaking its short term (10-wk) uptrend. Whether a shallower uptrend emerges in

Newcastle, Saturday 6 January Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily The rally in bond prices has broken and so yields have risen. In response equity markets have broken their immediate uptrends. Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($122.03 down $2.91, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted)

Newcastle, Saturday 30 December Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily Gold has broken out! Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($124.95 up $1.15, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) remains in its short-term uptrend. The yield of the longer-dated 30-yr T-Bond (4.02% down 0.04%, wkly, daily)

Newcastle, Saturday 23 December Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily A quieter week leading into Christmas but things still look as if they will work out. Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($123.78 even, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) broke out in the previous week

Newcastle, Sunday 17 December Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily Bonds to soar as interest rates fall, and the big iron ore producers look great. Keep an eye on copper too. Government bondsThe market has decided; bond prices are going to rise and bond yields are going to fall. This follows

Newcastle, Saturday 9 December Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily Gold is still hesitating, for now, but bitcoin is blasting upward.And iron ore has broken upwards out of its consolidation zone. Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($119.00 up $0.84, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted)

Newcastle, Sunday 3 December Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily Gold could be on the brink of exploding upward. Bitcoin is already doing so.I wrote most of this report on Saturday but finished it on Sunday. Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($118.16

Newcastle, Saturday 25 November Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily Bitcoin 1, USD 0 Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($114.84 down $0.56, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) lost some momentum on Friday but remains in short-term uptrend. Correspondingly, the yield of the longer-dated 30-yr

Newcastle, Saturday 18 November Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily Stockmarkets are looking good, presumably in part because govt bond yields are falling and this trend looks likely to continue for a while. Government bondsThe intermediate downtrend has broken in the T-Bond price series to which I have access for my

Newcastle, Saturday 11 November Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily Bitcoin is the most interesting right now of all of the markets covered. Government bondsThe T-Bond price in the series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($113.37 down $0.28, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) has provided more evidence that perhaps

Newcastle, Saturday 4 November Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily There were important reversals this week in the USD, T-Bond prices and US equities. Government bondsThe T-Bond price in the series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($113.65 up $4.16, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) has rallied sharply to touch

Newcastle, Saturday 28 October Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily Bitcoin has broken out. Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($109.50 up $1.03, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) remains in its downtrend. Fiat currenciesThe USD index (106.56 up 0.40 pts, wkly, daily) broke its steep

Newcastle, Saturday 21 October Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily The outlook for equity markets appears poor. But hard currencies gold and bitcoin look good. Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($108.47 down $4.31, wkly, daily) (back-adjusted) fell heavily again this week. Consequently

Newcastle, Sunday 15 October Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily Gold and oil have soared on the declaration of war in the Middle East but in both cases I am not yet sure whether their rallies are ready to continue. Government bondsThe T-Bond price in the series to which I have

Newcastle, Saturday 7 October Price movements noted in this article are weekly not daily Higher bond yields, the higher USD and economic uncertainty are dampening commodity prices and equities. Bitcoin is the only bright spark at present. Government bondsThe T-Bond price series to which I have access for my Metastock charts ($110.47 down $3.31, mthly,