Introduction
I started this blog in 2015 to communicate my ideas on stocks and other financial market matters. My background is that I spent some 25 years to the year 2000 as a sell-side securities analyst in Australia. Now I run a few portfolios and publish some research on companies, etc.
Research
In the early years of the blog I wrote a number of detailed research reports on various companies but in recent years I have not done so and instead prefer to write comments in my daily posts (see below).
Portfolios
I run two real portfolios based largely on fundamental analysis. One sits within a Superannuation fund in pension mode, while the other is within a Discretionary Trust. Most of them are small cap or microcap companies. Here are the current holdings for the Superfund portfolio and the Trust portfolio. The biggest holdings are AKP and A4N.
Daily posts
My commentary is in two parts.
- The Daily Analysis reports give a running commentary on stocks largely within the portfolios, written from a fundamental point of view, and also highlights chart breakouts.
- The Macros Analysis provide a review of the market at the close of every week, looking at the bigger picture of government bonds, fiat currencies, hard currencies, commodities, global stock market indices and the ASX leaders. This is based primarily on technical analysis.
Track record
The annual returns in recent years for the Superfund portfolio have been as follows:
2018/19 gain 23.4%
2019/20 gain 106.3%
2020/21 gain 28.3%
2021/22 loss 28.0%
2022/23 loss 38.1%
The annual returns in recent years for the Trust portfolio have been as follows:
2018/19 gain 4.8%
2019/20 loss 4.9%
2021/21 loss 9.1%
2021/22 loss 19.7%
2022/23 loss 88.3%
The last two years have been terrible, largely due to the demise of Phoslock (PET) which had been a large holding.
About this site
Website built by David Nash.
Icons made by itim2101 from www.flaticon.com
Hi G,
Read your blog and like your choice of small caps. I bought Aziana when they first took an option on Brainchip but must admit it didn’t look good for a while especially with SOR punting similar
Hi Glynn. Thanks for the feedback. SOR is on my watch list and I will consider buying it upon any interesting movement. Different market to BRN product though.
Hi Graeme
I have just started to accumulate stock based on research. I came across your blog accidentally as I share many of your investments. My plan was to test my Warren Buffett skills with a small portfolio as I have just recently retired from the workplace to become a house husband after having worked for public service for 24 years. I started with Redflow (RFX) very soon after Simon Hackett came onboard. I have since further acquired; SFI, BNO (please look), CCP, PLP (Lithium), MPJ* – now listed as KAI, SXE, CVC, MSM, and my favourite gamble is APY.
I have recently started online technical analysis tutorials because I really enjoy working with statistics and trend analysis methods. I know I will gain a lot more confidence investing once I have the technical analysis skills to guide my investments. Thank You for your blog.
Hi Brenton
I am familiar with most of the stocks you listed and hold some of them as you have seen, but please bear in mind that my investing is governed primarily by technical analysis. I have actually found that research on the fundamentals tends to disorient me. We are dealing with highly speculative situations here and so the true fundamental picture, being a insiders assessment of the management and the risks as much as the rewards, is almost impossible to carry out.
Technical analysis is also difficult and more of an art than a science, with the picture often obscure. I have my successes and also my mistakes. Big ones.
Graeme
Thanks Graeme, I have been learning a lot about Technical Analysis and I do understand that most of the time researched based investores dont pay much attention to technical analysis and visa versa. What I found most interesting about your blog is the correlation of stocks you identified using technical analysis included many I identified by research, which I think is good. I will continue the technical analysis tutorials online as I hope to use both techniques and dont have a preference for one or the other. I am abnormal in many ways 🙂
Hi Graeme,
I trust that you’re well!
My name is Jackson Green – a 20 year old, second year studying finance at Melb Uni; heavily interested in global equity markets, and have been investing / trading for the past 4 years. Have been working part-time at Baillieu Holst and JB Were for some work experience, and recently went out on a limb and setup my own fund.
I’ve built my own investment philosophy, proprietary stock selection model, portfolio weighting model and entry point valuation method (primarily using DCF and comps). I deal primarily in micro-small caps, and have been following your commentary for about a year now as we share a few similar stocks (BRN and LNU).
My overall approach is far more biased towards fundamental analysis – and I know you specialise in technical, but this is the reason for my message. I would truly appreciate it if you would spare me 15 minutes of your time for a brief call, so that I may better understand how to improve my technical analysis and trading skills, given how successful you have been over the years.
My number is: 0400025994.
Thanks for your time.
Hi Graeme,
I trust that you’re well!
My name is Jackson Green – a 20 year old, second year studying finance at Melb Uni; heavily interested in global equity markets, and have been investing / trading for the past 4 years. Have been working part-time at Baillieu Holst and JB Were for some work experience, and recently went out on a limb and setup my own fund.
I’ve built my own investment philosophy, proprietary stock selection model, portfolio weighting model and entry point valuation method (primarily using DCF and comps). I deal primarily in micro-small caps, and have been following your commentary for about a year now as we share a few similar stocks (BRN and LNU).
My overall approach is far more biased towards fundamental analysis – and I know you specialise in technical, but this is the reason for my message. I would truly appreciate it if you would spare me 15 minutes of your time for a brief call, so that I may better understand how to improve my technical analysis and trading skills, given how successful you have been over the years.
My number is: 0400025994.
Thanks for your time.
Hi Graeme,
Just a quick message to say thanks for your analysis and commentary that I and am sure many others appreciate and enjoy following. I am a long term follower of PSY which you have commented on in the past and a more recent follower of AVL – both of which are currently showing signs of life.
Thanks and Regards
Thanks Gary. Your comment is appreciated.
thanks graeme. you blogs great. im pretty new to stock investing so i love reading your blog.
i dont know a lot about the technical side and id love to get some charting software….only then id need to know how too read it.
thanks for you insights anyway.
im liking graphene and some of the cannabis stufff that happening by the way.
cheers
Mick
Thanks for the feedback, Mick.
Hi Graeme,
Thank you for your blog and technical reviews. I read your running commentary and market assessment with enthusiasm.
I am a big believer in Phoslock and I am excited about what they have to offer not only us as shareholders but also the world environment. China is a very thrilling new phase and I really enjoy your updated reviews.
Carnarvon Petroleum is another stock that I have been following with interest of late and was wondering if you had any view on this stock moving forward?
I hope you are well and all the best.
Milky
Thanks Milky. CVN is certainly an interesting proposition on the fundamentals. On the chart, at 14¢ it has to move above 15¢ on volume to be interesting. Presumably you hold them already but I would not buy them until they breakout above 15¢. That might happen while Phoenix South-3 is being drilled, if not beforehand.
Let’s sit back and watch the CVN train take off. So much to like at present and my technical gut feel says it is very close to something special.
Also, thanks for your latest report on PHK. They have been quiet for a while on the announcement front but the weather is starting to forge in the right direction in China for some nice progress to be made. Looking forward to this space.
Thanks,
Milky Weston
Yes, now that it has broken out above 15¢ it could go for a run
Graeme, great to see you are still doing the research
Well, well, a voice from the past! Yes, it keeps me amused in my retirement.
Graeme,
Another thank you from a (daily) reader of your blog.
Particularly impressed with continuation during your holidays, in spite of the technical challenge.
I am a holder of PET (ex PHK) and have been so for well over 10 years. Your analysis reports have been highly useful for me to manage my investment here (i.e. buying more over the years).
Do you by any chance have a “light” version for your trading stock in SDV (I am also a holder, from prior to their consolidation) for readers’ benefit?
Scidev is in a challenging position, with a major client-loss but announcement of “much more to come” indication at such a low capitalisation and a change of director.
Hello Ben,
Thanks for your kind words.
I was going to go to SDV’s AGM but couldn’t make it in the end. Given the loss of the contract and consequently with less cash flow than budgeted, they might need to raise some more equity capital this half year, but I agree the shares appear to be cheap. As it happens, I am looking to compile a research report on SDV and the company is keen to help. I will probably visit their office later in the month and a report would follow in due course.
Cheers
Graeme
Hi Graeme – Your name was mentioned on Hot Copper during a discussion about Phoslock, a company I have a lot of faith in and I’ve held for quite a while now. You also it would appear ! I’ve had a look at this site and I like what I’ve read so far. I’ve made a contribution because I think that’s only reasonable for the service you provide and I’ll fill in the form below to be notified by email of new posts. Anyway thanks for the service. Regards, Julia Huck (newbie)
Thanks Julia, much appreciated.
Cheers,
Graeme
Hi Graeme – I appreciate your insights. I noticed that PET has recently started to have more sellers than buyers. In your view does this have any significance for the future trajectory of the stock?
Regards
David
Hi David
The number of buyers and sellers is much less significant than the number of shares wanted or offered at the various prices. You should also bear in mind that not all the buying and selling parties are on the board, preferring to keep their intentions hidden.
Cheers
Graeme
Hi Graeme,
Recently discovered your blog – I find it fascinating. Impressive results over the years and especially recently – will it be your best year ever? Just wondering, do you have any books to suggest for further eduction based on the type of technical analysis which you perform? Also – how do you find the many breakouts which you identify? Are you tracking all ASX stocks?
Thank you for this blog – it’s very educational for me and I’m sure many other investors that are overwhelmed with the many vested interests out there!
Thanks Andrew
It is only 2 months into the financial year so it is a little too early, but if the year ends with plus 60% then yes, it will be my best year. A few years ago there was one year that surpassed 50%. This year I flooked onto SDV though, outside of which the performance is ordinary.
I track all ASX stocks and scan for breakouts each day using my charting package which is Metastock real time, but other packages do similar things I believe.
I think portfolio performance using charting comes with experience but one book I would recommend is Edwards and McGee (?) which is probably out of print but the basic principles remain the same. I don’t use indicators, just chart patterns to make my decisions, and perhaps I could improve performance by using indicators but what I am doing seems to work.
Graeme
Hello Mr Newing,
I’m eagerly awaiting your next report on PET.
Any indication on when you may be releasing it?
Cheers,
Adam (fellow overweight PET)
Hi Adam
Don’t have any immediate plans but will certainly issue an update upon any immportant news.
Cheers
Graeme
Hi Graeme,
Enjoy reading through your reports and have only been following you since July.
I have been watching (PET) for awhile, first became aware of the company when they were trading at around 0.07. Watched them go up and bounce around. Then one day while sitting there pondering why I had never put my toe in the water, l pressed the buy button, 16,000 @0.195.
The start of a great journey and have added more at various stages, with an average price of 0.48.
Looking forward to watching this company grow.
Cheers
Trevor
Thanks Trevor. You and me both.
Cheers
Graeme
Hey Graeme,
I really enjoy reading your insights daily so thank-you for taking the time to post everyday! I look forward to reading your analysis after work during the week.
As a fellow long-term holder of SDV, I was just wondering if you believe your valuations are beginning to look conservative in lieu of recent quarterly report and their impressive potential contracts in the pipeline?
Also, how did SDV first blip onto your radar? Had you had your eye on it since INL days or did you come across it from via a breakout from a Technical Analysis viewpoint?
Again, thank-you for your daily insights, they are much appreciated!
Jamie
Thanks Jamie
It is possible I am too conservative on the SDV valuation but would prefer to see more runs on the board before any revision.
I lost quite a bit of money on INL but eventually sold out some years ago. However I have followed the acquisition of Science Developments since its acquisition. First bought back into SDV in Sep 2018.
Graeme
Hi Graeme,
Do you know much about ECT (Environmental Clean Tech)? If so, do you have a view on it?
Thanks
Hi Thomas
Have followed them in the past. Interesting suite of technologies but clearly very poor credibility.
Their immediate future depends upon the success of the $7.45m rights issue at 0.1¢, because otherwise it seems to me they could go under. Cash 30 Sep just $79,000, current borrowings 30 June $2.1m, insurance monies to be received $2.0-2.5m but this to be spent on remediation. Bound to be a big shortfall in the rights issue.
Hi Graeme,
Just made a small donation. Thanks for taking the time to share your experience with those of us who are just starting out. Greatly enjoy reading your thoughts.
If you want regular small contributions from your reader base (eg. $1 – $5 a month), have you considered using https://www.patreon.com/c/writing? I suspect a lack of donations is not due to conscience, but friction in the payment method. It is awkward to solicit regular contributions with a bank account.
I don’t recall seeing you write about it (I may have missed it!) but PPH is looking interesting to me at the moment. HY20 rev $56m +31%, NPAT $6.6m (has just become profitable), lots of operating leverage. Recently announced an acquisition of a church CMS which may (or may not!) act as a catalyst to break out of its consolidation zone.
Hi Eric
Thanks for the donation, I saw it the other day.
Had a look at Patreon. That is a possibility but if I was to limit access to just those paying I would probably look to do it in my existing WordPress system, as an add on.
PPH is certainly interesting. Prompted by your comment I have had a good look at it and have put it on my buying list.
Regards
Graeme
Hi Graeme,
Patreon is not only for paywalled content. In fact, I’d very humbly suggest that you don’t do that – the way the internet works, when you paywall a small blog you will very very quickly find your readership numbers attritting to 0!
Have a look at what Martin North (analyst focused on Australian macro) does. His blog is at https://www.digitalfinanceanalytics.com/ and his Patreon page is at https://www.patreon.com/DigitalFinanceAnalytics/overview. The contributions are entirely voluntary and his content remains open to all via his website. Frankly, this is the only way to do it (I’m in tech) as you need lots of regularly generated open content to continue to be findable for new readers via Google.
At best you may be able to get away with a freemium model, where limited content is subscribers only. It’s completely up to you.
PPH: Independent non-exec director purchased circa $100k NZD today. Might be a mildly positive sign.
Eric
Hi Eric
Sorry about the delay in getting back to you, I have only just seen your response because for some reason it had been automatically put in the spam folder within my WordPress site.
Thanks for your very useful input. Your comment about paywalls was one of the reasons I have not commercialised this site (the others being legal issues relating to the securities industry, if any, and the fact that I am not technically savvy enough to know how to do it). When I have a chance I will indeed have a look at Martin North’s site. I will get back to you after that if that’s all right.
Regards
Graeme
Hey g, just found your blog. Would you say a4n is long or short term hold. Kinda new to trading
Hi Dan
At this Point I am not sure if A4N is short or long term, I will just see what hAppens.
Graeme
Just found a link to your site
Hello Graeme.
Although I have avoided posting “social media-like” messages, in this case the emergency situation in NSW and surrounds (Newcastle) creates an exception since you would not be too far from it all and affected by it one way or another. Wishing you and loved ones a safe time.
(no posting required on your blog)
Thnks Ben. Appreciate your concern. We have not been affected here in inner Newcastle and don’t expect to be, because we are a long way from forested areas.
Cheers
Graeme
Hi Graeme
Is the tsla stock
Elon musk company i just dont see it on your long term portfolio
Cathy Woods a fund manager from Ark investment predicts it to go beyond $6000 a share
So far from your stock selections i have bought into EOS So will swing some profits your way soon
Love reading your blog
Cheers Graeme
Ps why did u sell out of ZNO
Hi Graeme
Thanks for your comments.
TSLA is in the short term portfolio. Yes, Cathy Woods is certainly bullish.
Sold out of ZNO when it cut a very short term uptrend but then it turned around and went much higher. One of my many mistakes.
Cheers
Graeme
Great research on $PET and $SDV Graeme. Another waterTech company to keep an eye on is Parkway Minerals ($PWN) with their, BPaaS – Brine Processing as a Solution, offering.
https://www.parkwayminerals.com.au
Hey Graeme
Not only am I interested in stock trading, but I love learning about the fundamentals behind security analysis.
I’d like to learn about DCF modelling and how to do DCF for companies that are also non-cash generating. Do you have any resources you can recommend from which you learnt your DCF models?
Thank you!
Enjoy your content
Kind regards
Addy
Hi Addy, sorry about the late reply. I think I probably ldearnt all about DCF valuations at Uni decaders ago. These days I would think the best way to learn about it is to google it.
Cheers
HGraeme
Hi Graeme
I have signed up for your site info via my iPhone but I am unable to sync across my iPad and PC.
Do i join up 3 times and obtain the one sub or what is the procedure?
My iPad did ask for a password but i have never had a password for your blog site.
I also requested a password reset link when prompted but didn’t receive an email link.
Teething problems with the new format or am i missing something?
Kind Regards
Paul Grigg
Hi Paul, thanks for subscribing.
With logging in from a different device, you should use this link: https://www.newingonstocks.com/my-account/
That’ll log you in and then you can access your subscription.
Cheers
Graeme
Should be an interesting webinar tomorrow on PET. I really are hoping that this time we might get some meaningful facts. I am so pleased that I sold half my holding on the way up for a lovely profit. Haven’t been well of late so whilst being a member haven’t fully been around your site yet but am expecting your usual high standard. Thanks Graeme and look forward to your comments on the webinar after tomorrow.
Cheers and
Thanks Ian
Hello Graeme,
I’m contacting you following Phoslock’s ASX release yesterday, in which you were mentioned as one of the proposed alternative board, along with Mr Bart and Mr van Boheemen.
I’ve been invested in Phoslock since it was first listed and I attended all the board meetings held in Sydney under Mr Freedman’s chairmanship. I noted your presence in most of these and the questions you asked, so I know that you have an attachment to the company and its product, as do I.
I feel that the current board has thrown in the towel and that shareholders will get little if any return if we just sell out to SePro ( whom I believe have been white-anting and copying PET for years).
However, I’m also very cautious about your alternative board option, as I’ve seen too many times how assets are stripped out of distressed companies to the destruction of all loyal shareholder value.
I believe it would help shareholders considerably if information on the proposed new board’s strategy for advancing the PET business was made available some days before January 18th, so that all could be better informed. A webinar by the directors with questions , or a presentation of some type would be excellent. Specifically, I’d seek an understanding of the following:
What would be the new board’s strategy for operating the company?
Given that the new board comprises a businessman, an analyst and an accountant, and with no water industry/technical expertise, where will the board obtain it’s industry knowledge to execute their strategy, and what new skills do you bring to, or can access for the company?
The new board could undertake a substantial share consolidation followed by a new equity raise to refund the company. But this would effectively dilute out and destroy any base value that we long- term and loyal shareholders would otherwise retain to seed the retrieval of our destroyed wealth as the company rebuilds its sales. More preferably, the new board could raise finance through debt using the agencies of its high net worth members and shareholders like Mr Bart ( Mr Freedman?)
So can you give some guidance to the new board’s financing strategy, and will it involve a share dilution and equity raise?
I would hate to see SePro benefit from all the hard years that PET, its staff and its shareholders have endured to make this worthwhile company and product a commercial success and environmental godsend. But it would be better to wind up the company than to have it effectively taken from us by a financial strategy that disregards the interests of existing loyal shareholders.
I’d be very grateful if you could share your thoughts on the above, and preferably to the widest shareholder audience possible.
Regards
David
Hi David
Thanks for your considered remarks. In brief, I am keen to extract some value for shareholders from the product which as you say is highly effective at solving the problem of blue green algae in waterways.
I believe the existing management made some poor decisions including shutting down the China business and terminating all existing employees who after all were running a successful business, and instead hired staff who were not experienced in water treatment.
If elected we would look to cut costs and husband Phoslock’s remaining cash reserves. The company could possibly approach profitability with interest income more than offsetting costs. I would like to see the business resurrected in due course using former employees and their widespread industry contacts, whether as employees or consultants. China could be the key initial focus.
My role would be primarily in support of Fred who will be the key driving force.
We won’t know until we go through the books, etc, but there should be no additional capital required in the short term because existing cash, and product inventory, should be sufficient for at least the next year or two. In due course and if the company is successful, additional capital may be required to fund expansion.
To assist with cost reduction we would consider delisting the shares from ASX but if so I would like to see a mechanism whereby investors could buy and sell their shares, whether internally, through the share registry or through a third party like Primary Markets.
Some of this information will be made available in the notice of meeting to be issued in coming days. And some of it is merely my personal view and not necessarily the view of the other proposed directors.
Hope that helps,
Graeme
Graeme,
Like David in the post above, I have been a long-term shareholder in PET. Purchases go back over 10 years.
I am hoping to find out more about the strategy of the new board and the current state of play.
I also would like your view on whether to participate in the Shareholder class action being run by Levitt Robinson.
As I participated in the 50c SPP for several accounts, I believe I am eligible but they are now wanting funds stumped up. If you are unable to help, can you direct me to anyone who can provide some simple answers?
Would it be better to get in touch with you via your private email?
Peter Williams
Hi Peter
Thanks for your enquiry.
Perhaps call me on 0402 401 400.
Regards
Graeme